A land development with incredible farming and food processing opportunities in Northern Zambia
The proposal
Mungwi Farming Corporation (MFC, the Company, registerd in Zambia No 120160008299) hold fully registered 99 year leases over some 25,000 hectares of well watered land in Norther Zambia with the option to substantially increase this hectarage to over 50,000 hectares. The land is close and adjacent to the main East West D18 highway and some 40kms from Kasamsa
The proposal is for the phased development of the land and critical services to enable each stage to support irrigated agriculture with associated power, storage, handling and processing.
The objective is to enable farming to deliver maximum “farm gate” value in one of the most stable countries in Sub Saharan Africa and in a period of unquestionable food demand growth. Such a large area of land could also provide scope for other diverse investment opportunities
The project will also help to create wealth and sustainable development in an otherwise seriously underdeveloped and under resourced region of the country.
Each commercial phase of 3- 5 years, comprises four key elements
- 400 – 500 hectare dam (min 18 million cubic mtrs water)
- 3000 – 4000 hectares cleared land
- Solar/mains power supply
- Key roads, including culverts, bridges and flood protection.
In every phase a small percentage of the newly serviced land will be set aside for the immediate local population
Farming Options including Exits
Well before completion of each phase the promoters will have the choice of whether to either farm themselves or to establish 50 year subleases on the cleared land or a combination. The latter is an increasingly important prospect as the almost unique socio political situation in Zambia is making it an attractive commercial destination for farmers from other parts of SSA
Based upon current prices of both commodities and land we see each phase as capable of delivering shareholders well in excess of 80% capital return withn 4 years
Alternatively CRMG have also prepared full budget projections for cultivation and processing of certain crops considered to be commercially viable.
Background & Overview
“The population in Africa is rapidly expanding, and by 2060 the region will hold an estimated 2.8 billion people”. (World bank Oct 2015)
“Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub- Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 months on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today”. (PNAS November 2016)
The Country
Zambia is diversified society which, since the 1990’s, has enjoyed a peaceful multi-party parliamentary democracy. In August this year democratic elections were once again held without any disturbance or suggestion of incorrect practise, a true demonstration of Zambias stability.
The country has an effective and independent legal system, a fully commercial banking sector and currently freedom from restrictions on foreign exchange. Invariably it has its share of difficulties, a historical reliance on copper, a lack of investment in infrastructure and drought from 2015 – 18 in part of the country.
Although copper has rallied considerably from its 2016 lows the challenge for the Government remains both its dependency on the metal and in building the countries undeniable farming capability. Unfortunately the last three years of the previous administration were seriously marked by “opaque” infrastructure projects with Chinese contractors resulting in unserviceable debt and a serious decline in the value of the Kwacha.
This appears to have now stabilised.
The Incentives
The Government not only wants to see the agricultural sector grow but also recognises the need to try and add value to basic commodities before export. To this end there are some tax and duty exemptions for most machinery used for the processing and further refining of basic commodities, including of course all agricultural product. Additionally there are varying tax and duty exemptions on imported farm and food processing machinery.
The Location
The small town of Mungwi is situated some 40 kms to the East of Kasama town in the Northern Province of Zambia. Historically northern Zambia, and in particular from the shores of Lake Tanganyika south to Kasama was once a significant farming area. Today this is a largely underdeveloped agricultural area of Northern Zambia with good soil and reliable rainfall which is now on the cusp of complete regeneration.
Critically this region of Zambia has always had its most important markets as its neighbours; namely DRC, Tanzania, Malawi and further north via Lake Tanganyika. Today, these neighbours are increasingly dependent and Mungwi is very well placed to take advantage of this.
While the farm is some 900kms from Lusaka it is only 220 kms to Mpulungu Port (lake Tanganyika), 245 kms to Tanzania, 420 to The DRC and 420 to Malawi.
Kasama is the capital town of the Northern Province and lies on the main M1 north-south road and D18/M3 east-west road; its airport has a modern departure/arrival and ticketing building and currently there are daily flights to and from Lusaka (via Ndola). While not especially large the town has all main services including a regional hospital, banking and all civil administration; it is also the base for the Permanent Secretary and the commercial palace of the Paramount Chief of the Bemba. The arterial road network in Northern Province is essentially good particularly as traffic use is much lower than in the Lusaka and copper belt areas. However, it is noticeable that, as is so often the case in Africa, maintenance subsequently falls below the required standard. A bridge over the Chambeshi river, to the East on the D 18, is currently nearing completion, this would deliver a cionsiderably shorter rout to East Africa.
Kasama also has a passenger and goods yard on the Tanzam rail line; this line has suffered considerable neglect over recent years but is now the subject of a major refurbishment and repair programme.If the commodity goods-yards at Kasama was to properly reopen for commercial traffic it would represent a very important positive addition to the project logistics.
The Bemba Partnership
The land lies within the curtilage of the Bemba nation and the rural palace of HRH Chief Chitimukulu, Paramount Chief and King of the Bemba, is situated between the two main initial blocks. We have had extensive discussion with HRH, and his son, Prince Henry Sosala, has now been appointed a member of the board of MFC. Directly the Bemba, through HRH, hold a significant minority shareholding. We have both the full consent, support and authority from HRH and the Bemba Royal establishment for this project. The two initial main leases were formalised at the end 2017. Two small leases covering the processing and administration land are in process and expected before the end of 2021
The land
The current land comprises two main blocks, both encompassing the Kalunga River. Block A is some 6000 hectares and block B some 20,000 hectares. The two blocks are separated by a narrow corridor carrying the RD21 road over the Kalungu river to the Chitimikulu township . The land has been selected for its proximity to the main D18 roadway and newly installed main power lines which run along the D18 currently as far as to the communities of Malole and Chitimukulu. Most importantly we have sought to ensure that the water resources, are within the farm boundaries on both banks. Control of the water resource is seen as a critical component of the project. There are also two important areas alongside the main road, close to Malole, for processing, storage, maintenance and a separate accommodation area. These areas amount to some 190 hectares.
Actual arable farming is not predicted to ever exceed 14,000 hectares in this hectarage. Convential cropping is an obvious option but rice and malting barley are also possibilities. Serious consideration is also being given to high grade coffee, tree crops such as nuts as well as other diversified crops
Topographically the farm area is a semi-plateau interspersed with rivers and feeder-streams with only moderate changes in elevation The quality of the water is good. Provisional hydrological planning has already been undertaken and the Company is in the process of commissioning a detailed hydrological mapping survey of the crucial river and flood-plain areas to create a full computer model for the irrigation planning of all paddy fields and associated irrigation network and structures including dams.
Carbon offset, Tourism and Rewilding
Land not utilised for agriculture could be devoted to bush/forest renewal under a variety of carbon offset options a valuable consideration in the prevailing global climate initiative. A revival of the traditional bush and the management of wildlife could easily enable the establishment of a tourist opportunity. While not in the current proposals it is certainly worthy of consideration.
Climatic conditions
Despite its latitude of only 10.13 degs S the temperature is moderated by the altitude (1240 mtrs); average mean temperatures range from 17.1 C in July to 23.1C in October.
Average precipitation is 1200+mm per annum with all rainfall concentrated between October and May with majority falling from the second half of November to March
Much of the land is “dambo” where the soil is essentially a dark sandy loam over sand and clay with pH ranging from 4.8 to 5.6 and higher organic matter than other areas.
Water
It is provisionally estimated that the total project will require up to 1500 hectares of medium to large reservoirs in up to 4 separate dams. The Kalungu River currently remains in good flow even at the end of the dry season but can flood large areas in the height of the rainy season. The plan not only calls for retention of much of the summer rain but also sufficient capacity to ensure that paddy fields are not destroyed at the height of the rains. This is a well understood concept and the irrigation engineers are well versed in it.
WARMA have conducted flow rates for both rivers and combined the annual availability would be circa 52million cubic mtrs (half the actual volume).
The creation of dams of this size will, in addition to providing essential irrigation water, enable a substantial and profitable, non intensive, fish farming operation.
Project phasing and management.
The management of CRMG have experience of developing large-scale arable farms from scratch and are realistic in terms of timescales. The project is expected to be developed in three (possibly four) phases, each taking up to three years to come to full production; any improvement on this would be a bonus. The key objective is an integrated arable farm and on site processing plants.
Phase 1 will commence following Zambian government approval of the Environmental Impact Assessment, full investment commitment and board approval of the feasibility and budget analyses. The Company feels that this is unlikely to be accomplished much before the end of the next rainy season in April 2024
Production & Crops
In all agricultural production it is desirable to obtain the highest farm-gate prices. In Africa, where logistics are disproportionately expensive, this is absolutely critical and this can only be achieved by either adding value to high quality crops by processing the product as far as is feasibly possible on the farm or growing high value crops in the first place. The company aslo recognises the need for diversified cropping to alleviate risks associated with both monoculture itself and possible government intervention both inside and outside the country of production.
In addition it has to be recognised that capital costs in emerging economies can sometimes be disproportionately high and frequently there will be serious energy and beaurocratic difficulties. These factors need to be carefully balanced when deciding the farming strategy
CRMG has access to a range of highly experienced farming specialists who have been consulted on this project. While no specific crop programme has been finalised we are, at least, focussed in certain areas.
Rice & seed rice
“In spite of considerable rice production gains over the past 50 years, Sub-Saharan Africa is becoming increasingly dependent on rice imports as demand is outpacing domestic supply”. (Biomed central Sep 2015 )
Rice consumption in sub Saharan Africa has been consistently rising for the last ten years with almost all of the countries failing to meet consumption from domestic production although Tanzania (the largest producer in the immediate region) frequently has differing regional supply / demand imbalances due to the terrible logistics. Of Zambia’s’ immediate neighbours the DRC, Malawi, Rwanda and Tanzania are of particular interest to this project. In all countries the deficiency is usually made up of imported Thai and Indian rice which are usually lower grade product or at the other end of the scale for the premium city markets.
The Company has already engaged with Buhler and fully costed a complete boiling and processing plant for rice and a sorting and milling unit for other hard grains. This includes the capability to grade and pack to retail “shelf ready”product.
Rice seed production is not a particularly difficult process and if rice is decided upon seed production will become an important component both for own use and significantly sale and export.
Malting barley
Irrespective of all economic difficulties, Africa has the highest year on year growth of beer consumption in the world, currently 4.6% per annum.
Demand for malting barley is growing rapidly and the crop can also be grown in between rice crops on the same land. At the altitude and climate of Mungwi this is a very feasible crop providing a clear off take strategy is in place; we have identified a number of potential domestic and neighbouring off-takers for such production. We have been provided with estimates for turnkey malting units.
Coffee has been grown in Northern Zambia for many years and although the production is currently low it has always had a reputation for quality. Serious consideration will be given to this crop if offtake can be properly contracted. Positive discussions have already started with European roasters.
Other crops
In the case of other conventional, non-paddy crops, it is proposed to install silo storage with primary processing (possibly milling) to wholesale packing point. Pelletised or HC baled lucerne/alfalfa are possibilities. Bananas are amongst the annual crops under consideration, both having strong local markets. Soft fruit and other highly perishable crops are currently not being considered nor, at this stage, livestock and poultry.
Logistics and off take will be key factors in deciding what other crops can be grown.
Fish Farming
The construction of up to 1500 Hectares of dams will provide ideal conditions for fish farming. Fish represents a very important protein source in Sub Saharan Africa but short-sighted and uninformed fishing practises have severely depleted stocks in almost all river systems and the lakes. Zambia now imports an estimated 60,000+ tonnes of fish a year
Social commitment and partnership.
The local community and in particular the small rural villages exist in a parlous state. Poor subsistence farming combined with very limited support leaves these communities in challenging conditions; it is to their immense credit that they remain stoic and humorous. This can and should be addressed to enable the communities to enjoy a sustainable, happy and healthy lifestyle.
The Company will not only need to employ many of these people but is aware that this project will have an important impact on their communities. The arrangement should be mutually beneficial and is part of our Bemba agreement.
The irrigation and field planning will impact on their access to the river. The irrigation plan will make provision for this in two ways. Firstly the local communities only, will be given rights to fish the new reservoirs (albeit strictly controlled to maintain stocks and in conjunction with commercial fishing); secondly free river access areas will be provided for each community. We also propose to install piped water to each village over a five year period.
The Company will also, in phase one, start a medical and teaching programme which will reach out and provide medical and educational support in the villages themselves, sustained from a central medical and educational centre built in the proposed accommodation area.
The out-grower scheme and subsistence crops
The company will actively encourage any of the communities which wish to participate in an out-grower scheme. They will provide seed and other inputs at a “cost plus” basis and will also undertake primary cultivation of the land to be utilised, free of charge. The out-grower will be required to deliver the crop to the company who will pay the prevailing buyer-price less the cost of inputs. We envisage that this scheme, which will be located in or around the varios small villages, will be operated and controlled by the Bemba hierarchy and various headmen and chiefs
Training and employment.
A farm of this size requires a large and effective work force. The company will recruit from the local villages and where employees show willingness and ability they will be given the chance to undertake training and improvement.
In our experience in Eastern Europe and Russia we quickly realised the value of the female workforce in the community and we will seek to train women in improving the home farming skills and inparticular small scale livestock and vegetable cropping
The Company will adopt a key full time staff policy with on site traing and development. Unskilled part time staff will also be recrited at key periods of the year and certain
Financials, projections and work underway
The local water authority in Kasama has already engaged in collating water flow and volume figures for the Kalungu River at three important points on the proposed farm.
CRMG already has on-board access to all the required management and professional skills to complete a project of this type and size.
CRMG have already started hydrological surveying and assessment.
CRMG are engaging a specialist topographical mapping company to start the detailed mapping of the water management areas.
CRMG have engaged Fedpa Ltd, an accredited and Zambia Environmental Management Agency (ZEMA) approved firm to undertake and complete a full Environmental Impact Assessment. Half of this assessment was completed before suspension in 2018 and will be started again in early 2024.
To invest or obtain more detailed information contact :
Guy Cheyney
Tel Norfolk UK + 441362 638343
Mobile UK + 44 7768 356277
gcheyney@crmglobal.co.uk info@crmglobal.co.uk
GRSC 09/23
Feasibility
- Overview, objectives and limitations
- Technical feasibility
- Political considerations
- Risk factors
- Establishment and operational Cost
- Profitability & Cash Flow
1 Overview, objectives and Limitations
The project envisages the phased development of a combined farming and agricultural processing unit in Northern Zambia, close to the provincial capital of Kasama. The partnership with the Bemba Royal Establishment is an extremely important component of the project.
The project is to take place on land held under 99 year (95 unexpired) by Mungwi Farming Corporation Limited, a Zambian Registered company. The land encompasses two rivers and numerous streams, it is gently undulating and, due to altitude, has a sub-tropical climate.
The project is designed to initially capitalise on crops which have a proven performance capability in the region, a willing and low cost workforce and a recognised and broadly based customer market. Acceptable profitability will only be achieved by significantly enhancing product value at the “farm gate”.
The objectives are firstly, to deliver positive cash flow, acceptable profitability and demonstrable investor value in each phase before moving to the next. Secondly to provide employment and, through assistance in social support and education, to considerably improve the lifestyle of the local Bemba community. Thirdly substantially grow the asset value and build a viable business from which the shareholders could, if required, exit profitably and without difficulty.
This study is principally limited to Phase One of the project. The promoters have prepared plans and budgeting for phase two onwards but these are contingent on phase one success and in depth analysis and confirmation of appropriate off take markets and price sensitivity.
2 Technical Feasibility
There is no planned technical innovation in this project. The project is fundamentally simple throughout
All the farming will employ demonstrably proven and well used methods and machinery.
All crops in Phase 1, including fish, have a track record of success in this region of Zambia. The key senior farm management have an enviable track record of the crops proposed in Phase One.
From the start of the business, limited “on farm” trials will be made of other specific crops and varieties.
The dam construction will employ standard design and construction pertinent to the specific location. Both the designer and the proposed builder have exceptional experience in this field.
The promoters have opted to use contractors for all clearance, key logistics, services and construction. This decision is based on two simple precepts, firstly that the promoters key strengths lie in farming and marketing of agricultural product. Secondly that a very significant capital cost can be avoided.
If implemented as currently proposed Phase Two/Three will require additional processing and handling plant. All of this is standard “off the shelf” design.
3 Political considerations
Sub Saharan Africa has a generally dismal record of stability and good governance, accompanied by a reputation for ill considered, politically motivated, decision making. While Zambia is an exception, it is, by comparison with most of its neighbours, something of a beacon of liberal democracy and stability and has been so for the last 30 years. Following six years of considerable difficulty with huge increases in debt and inflation, 2021 saw the election of a new president and economic stability has returned. The IMF have provided assistance and inflation has halved and the currency stabilised
As with any emerging and challenging economic environment the Promoters advocate and will adopt a controlled and external debt structured investment strategy.
4 Product Demand
Product demand
Coffee
Historically Northern Zambian Arabica coffee has commanded a premium, however coffee production has fallen to such an extent that currently Zambia coffee has lost its unique identity and is largely treated as a “blender” with other higher grade African Arabicas. However discussions with European roasters has reaffirmed that there is still a real interest and market for quality Zambian production.
Fish (fresh whole)
Zambia, in common with most Sub Saharan Countries, has seriously depleted her fish stocks and this continues with uncontrolled small mesh netting. Fish have historically represented an important part of the national diet. In 2020 the country imported in excess of 60,000 mts of fish. Despite continued price rises, the demand for fish has grown with a substantial premium on fresh whole fish. The project will have the distinct price and logistical advantage over frozen imported product.
Malting Barley
Africa has the fastest growth rate for beer consumption in the world, currently 4.6% pa, and the demand for malting barley is constantly growing. However the promoters will require to contract, and have a suitable payment instrument in place prior to planting. This cannot be price guaranteed and this must be taken into consideration as without such offtake any barley harvested without a underpinned contract will have a substantially lower value.
Rice
Zambia itself only consumes some 11,000 mts of rice almost all of which is imported. Angola imports some 490,000 mts, the DRC some 150,000 mts and South Africa 1.5 million mts, all per annum. Therefore the promoters consider it reasonable to expect that the Project will be able to readily sell its product into one or all of these destinations. Additionally rice intercrops well with barley.
4 Risk factors
Climate/ environmental
Any farming project will be subject to the vagaries of weather extremes which can and do occur. This is only mitigated by good selection of crops and prudent preparation for either extreme. The project will employ proper drainage, water management and dry storage in anticipation of heavy summer rain. Equally the dam will be constructed, in the expectation of little or zero rain in the dry winter season. While South Africa and the South of Zambia have experienced severe water shortages over the last five years this has not been the case in the North, with Kasama consistently receiving 1000mm plus per annum.
In view of the extremely low level of irrigated cropping proposed in Phase One, fish farming would not be seriously affected other than that there was substantially below average rainfall in years 1 and 2 following the dam construction.
Crop specific disease/infestation.
This can occur (e.g. army worm in maize) and is mitigated by diversified crop planning and good management.
Currency fluctuations and market pricing
The majority of inputs are denominated in USD, accordingly, were sales to be in Kwacha there is a high exposure to a falling Kwacha. This is largely mitigated in this project by exporting the majority of production in USD. Where the product is sold in another acceptable currency (e.g. Euro) the exposure can be hedged.
Global market pricing and fluctuation risk
This is completely outside the control of the project except in the case of coffee where forward hedging is possible.
The Promoters have sought to produce crops which have a clear and sustainable demand with substantial delivered margins and an emphasis on export to first world markets.
The promoters have considerable experience in physical and futures commodity trading with associated skills including the evaluation of market trends.
Power
Zambia is subject to frequent power cuts “load shedding”. The ZESCO problems are well documented and the country has been forced to import power.
The promoters have budgeted for back up diesel generation and are currently reviewing various solar PV options, including zero installation + offtake contracts.
Logistics
Zambia is a land locked country and reliant on its neighbours to deliver product to key markets. Export logistics can be slow and expensive. It is key that the highest value ex farm gate are achieved.
The promoters already operate in Zambia and, with their shipping agents, are fully conversant with the procedures involved.
Political interference
The Zambian government has a record of interfering in the free market pricing of maize and (to a considerably lesser extent) wheat by banning or restricting exports. This has been largely politically motivated and serves only to depress production and reduce hard currency exports.
The promoters consider such restrictions on the crops/product proposed in this project will be unlikely.
There has been freedom of foreign exchange since 1994 but this must always be recognised as a possible risk.
This project is registered with the Zambian Development Agency (ZDA) and accordingly should receive preferential rates of Duty/taxes on all imported machinery and project critical inputs together with a minimum five year profit tax exemption. Occasionally these benefits have proven to be difficult to obtain in reality.
In mitigation it is know that this project has considerable political support at the highest level and it is to be expected that this will assist with any complications.
5 Establishment and Operational costs
The current budgets summarise the anticipated establishment costs. All projections are based upon USD.
These figures are predominantly based on actual costs incurred by similar ventures operating in Zambia and/or actual quotations for the supply of plant and machinery and contract construction.
There are some estimated costs; these have been based on similar projects, though not necessarily in Zambia, and other reputable documented information.
At all times allowance should be made for foreign exchange movements and possible increases in input costs.
Reasonable allowance has already been made for unforeseen events or costs.
6 Profitability & Cash Flow
Banana
Bananas will be planted alongside coffee in the early years, predominantly for shade. However there is good demand for fresh banana and they will provide a small but important source of cash in the early stages.
Coffee
Coffee can demonstrate high profitability but also considerable price volatility in the world market, irrespective of the premium typically achieved by North Zambian Arabica, this could place considerable pressure on margins. However the time lag from inception to full production should be viewed alongside the historical cycle of coffee prices. Additionally Zambian coffee can be fairly judged as a premium product and the promoters are well versed in product and currency hedging. Initial discussions with European roasters have already elicited considerable interest.
Fish farming
The project does not envisage intensive “cage” farming, preferring a low intensive approach.
Accordingly both the extremely high margins and extremely high risks are removed from the profitability analysis and projections.
In the absence of these factors the profitability, based upon current costs and Zambian domestic sales prices, is still very high.
Perhaps one of the most important aspects to consider is that, given proper management, cropping can continue for up to nine months a year.
7 Conclusion
Accepting that there is proper management in place, timely funding and no deleterious event or extreme political development there is every reason to view this project as profitable.
CRMG / GC / 2024